UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Brooklyn, USA
19 Jan 2019
Bantamweight
VS
53%
Sandhagen
47%
Bautista
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:31
Cory
Cory Sandhagen
18 – 6
5'11"70" reachSwitch34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 64
Mario
Mario Bautista
17 – 3
Well-Rounded32 yrsSwitch69" reach5'9"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sandhagen

This is a genuine toss-up — Sandhagen at 53% vs Bautista at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bautista has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sandhagen
Bautista
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
34
Age
+32
Switch
Stance
Switch
Sandhagen
Bautista
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.2
56.7
53.8
Performance Avg
54.6
44
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
73
Sandhagen
Bautista
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
4
2
Body
3
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance9
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Sandhagen
Bautista
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sandhagen
Bautista
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/24 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Sandhagen
Bautista
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
73
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Sandhagen
Bautista
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
46%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sandhagen
Bautista
Striking5.9 / 2.5Volume4.3 / 5.9Grappling1.6 / 4.2Wrestling1.1 / 3.0Submission0.9 / 3.6Pressure5.9 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Sandhagen
Strike Zones
Bautista
Sandhagen
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY6LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD3BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Bautista
Attacking
4HEAD3BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY6LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sandhagen targets the head (53% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Bautista targets the head (44% of attacks) — Sandhagen absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sandhagen
RND
Bautista
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sandhagen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.2W5.2W6.1W4.5W4.5W2.5L5.1W5.0W5.6L7.0L5.7W5.3W5.7W6.8L6.2W6.8L2018-012019-082021-072023-082025-10
WinLossTrend

Bautista · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.0L4.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W5.3W5.0W5.0W5.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W6.8L6.1W2019-012022-022023-082025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Sandhagen · Last 5

Upcoming
Mario Bautista
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08

Bautista · Last 5

Upcoming
Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

News & Media

Cory Sandhagen · Mario Bautista
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