★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
14 Dec 2019
Featherweight
VS
47%
Holloway
53%
Volkanovski
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
CFR 64
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Volkanovski
This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 47% vs Volkanovski at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Volkanovski connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Volkanovski has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holloway
Volkanovski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'6"
69"
Reach
+71"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Volkanovski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
64.0
56.8
Performance Avg
59.8
47
Quality of Victory
44
63
Momentum Score
100
Holloway
Volkanovski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.9
52%
Strike Accuracy
61%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
10 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
18
14
Body
3
1
Leg
10
RangeRange
32Distance31
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Holloway
Volkanovski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holloway
Volkanovski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
54
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
18/32 fights
Holloway
Volkanovski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Holloway
Volkanovski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
33%
10
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Volkanovski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
HollowayVolkanovski
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedVolkanovski
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (56% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (58% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Volkanovski
0/0R00/0
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Volkanovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Volkanovski · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · KO · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07