METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
14 Dec 2019
Featherweight
VS
47%
Holloway
53%
Volkanovski
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
CFR 64
★ Official Result
Alexander VolkanovskiwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Max Holloway · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Volkanovski
→
Actual result
Volkanovski wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 47% vs Volkanovski at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Volkanovski has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HollowayVolkanovski
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Holloway
Volkanovski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'6"
69"
Reach
+71"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Volkanovski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.9
64.0
57.7
Performance Avg
59.8
48
Quality of Victory
44
63
Momentum Score
100
Holloway
Volkanovski
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
5.0
/ 10
6.0
Style: Pressure
4.8
4.8
Style: Volume
7.0
11 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
18
14
Body
3
1
Leg
10
RangeRange
32Distance31
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Holloway
Volkanovski
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holloway
Volkanovski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
54
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
19/32 fights
Holloway
Volkanovski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Holloway
Volkanovski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
33%
11
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Volkanovski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
HollowayVolkanovski
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedVolkanovski
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (56% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (58% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Volkanovski
0/0R00/0
Holloway · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Volkanovski · Last 5
Upcoming
Movsar EvloevUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesDecision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesDecision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevKO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10