UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Las Vegas, USA
17 Dec 2022
Lightweight
VS
56%
Garcia
44%
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Rafa
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
19 – 4
5'7"70" reachOrthodox31 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Maheshate
Maheshate
10 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide26 yrsOrthodox71" reach6'0"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Garcia

This is a genuine toss-up — Garcia at 56% vs at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Garcia has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Garcia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+71"
31
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Garcia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.6
40.1
44.7
Performance Avg
38.8
32
Quality of Victory
43
75
Momentum Score
26
Garcia
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
30%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
2
Body
2
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance5
5Clinch0
8Ground1
Garcia
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garcia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
72
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/23 fights
Chin rating based on
6/15 fights
Garcia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
26
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Garcia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Garcia
Striking2.7 / 5.7Volume7.0 / 4.7Grappling2.9 / 1.2Wrestling2.0 / 0.8Submission1.4 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Garcia
Strike Zones
Garcia
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY5LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY5LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (65% of attacks) — absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯 targets the head (67% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Garcia
RND
0/0R00/0

Garcia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.2L5.5L4.5W5.2W6.5L4.8W5.0W4.2L4.7W5.9W5.4W2021-032022-042023-042025-092026-04
WinLossTrend

· QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0106.9W6.3L3.3L4.7W6.1L6.1L2022-062022-122023-052024-042024-112025-08
WinLossTrend

Garcia · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Grant DawsonRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

· Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gauge YoungRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Nikolas MottaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

News & Media

Rafa Garcia · Maheshate
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