UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
Houston, USA
7 Aug 2021
Welterweight
VS
44%
Chiesa
56%
Luque
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 44% vs Luque at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luque has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Luque has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Chiesa
Luque
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
38
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Luque
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
64.9
53.3
Performance Avg
57.2
43
Quality of Victory
50
50
Momentum Score
100
Chiesa
Luque
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
53%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
0
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
4Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Chiesa
Luque
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.8
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
4.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
6.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.1
9
Submission wins
7
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chiesa
Luque
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
34
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
25/36 fights
Chiesa
Luque
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
100
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Chiesa
Luque
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
82%
0
KO / TKO Wins
7
9
Submission Wins
7
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiesa
Luque
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.1
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
ChiesaLuque
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedLuque
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Luque targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiesa
RND
Luque
0/0R00/0
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03