UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Heavyweight
VS
56%
Lewis
44%
Lima
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:33
Derrick
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29 – 13
6'3"79" reachOrthodox41 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 59
Marcos
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
22 – 10
Striker40 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'1"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lewis

This is a genuine toss-up — Lewis at 56% vs Lima at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lima has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lewis's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lima has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lewis
Lima
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
75"
41
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lewis
Lima
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.2
47.3
57.5
Performance Avg
53.8
53
Quality of Victory
49
84
Momentum Score
59
Lewis
Lima
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
56%
Strike Accuracy
60%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
16 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
16Ground1
Lewis
Lima
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lewis
Lima
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
16
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/42 fights
Chin rating based on
18/32 fights
Lewis
Lima
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
59
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Lewis
Lima
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
73%
16
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lewis
Lima
Striking9.3 / 6.7Volume2.9 / 3.4Grappling0.5 / 2.1Wrestling0.3 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 1.8Pressure7.5 / 6.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Lewis
Strike Zones
Lima
Lewis
Attacking
16HEAD1BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Lima
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD1BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lewis targets the head (94% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Lima targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lewis absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lewis
RND
Lima
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lewis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W1.5L5.2W2.8L5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.4W5.1W3.4L5.9W4.9W6.8W2.1L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.1W6.1W4.5L5.3W3.2L2.7L2.0L5.6W7.3L5.6W6.2W4.3L2014-042016-072019-032022-072026-01
WinLossTrend

Lima · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W5.0W2.7L5.0W1.5L5.0W3.3L4.5W2.8L5.0W2.3L4.5W5.0W5.5L5.7W6.0W2.7L6.1W2014-052017-012020-112023-042024-02
WinLossTrend

Lewis · Last 5

Upcoming
Josh Hokit
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

Lima · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

News & Media

Derrick Lewis · Marcos Rogerio de Lima
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