UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Las Vegas, USA
19 Dec 2020
Catch Weight
VS
86%
Winn
14%
Arroyo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Winn
Winn is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Winn has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Winn throws more volume but Arroyo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Winn's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Winn
Arroyo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+73"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Winn
Arroyo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
3.3
31.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
55
Momentum Score
0
Winn
Arroyo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
56%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
2
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Winn
Arroyo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Winn
Arroyo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/10 fights
Chin rating based on
3/14 fights
Winn
Arroyo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Winn
Arroyo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Winn
Arroyo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
WinnArroyo
Strike Zones
Winn
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedArroyo
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Winn targets the head (60% of attacks) — Arroyo absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Arroyo targets the head (50% of attacks) — Winn absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Winn
RND
Arroyo
0/0R00/0
Winn · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Arroyo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Winn · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Phil HawesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · Dec · R3
Antonio ArroyoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · Sub · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.1Submission
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
L · Dec · R3
Darren StewartRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Eric SpicelyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
Arroyo · Last 3
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Deron WinnRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre MunizRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11