UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Manchester, United Kingdom
27 Jul 2024
Middleweight
VS
49%
Duncan
51%
Rodrigues
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Christian
Christian Leroy Duncan
"CLD"
14 – 2
6'2"79" reachSwitch30 yrs4-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 65
Gregory
Gregory Rodrigues
"Robocop"
19 – 6
Knockout Artist3-fight win streak34 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'3"
CFR 67

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rodrigues

This is a genuine toss-up — Duncan at 49% vs Rodrigues at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Rodrigues throws more volume but Duncan connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Rodrigues has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Duncan
Rodrigues
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
79"+
Reach
75"
30+
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Duncan
Rodrigues
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.8
66.6
59.8
Performance Avg
59.3
48
Quality of Victory
48
72
Momentum Score
100
Duncan
Rodrigues
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
2.2
63%
Strike Accuracy
52%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
2
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance4
0Clinch1
0Ground2
Duncan
Rodrigues
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Duncan
Rodrigues
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/16 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
Duncan
Rodrigues
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
100
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Duncan
Rodrigues
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
70%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Duncan
Rodrigues
Striking8.7 / 8.5Volume3.8 / 3.9Grappling0.7 / 0.7Wrestling0.5 / 0.5Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.3 / 7.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
Duncan
Strike Zones
Rodrigues
Duncan
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY3LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Rodrigues
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY3LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Duncan targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Rodrigues absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Rodrigues targets the head (100% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Duncan
RND
Rodrigues
0/0R00/0

Duncan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.4W5.5L5.3W5.6W7.1L5.6W5.8W6.6W5.9W2023-032024-032025-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Rodrigues · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.9W6.3W5.5L5.5W6.4W3.1L5.1W5.5W6.0W4.3L5.9W5.5W6.6W2021-062022-092024-072026-03
WinLossTrend

Duncan · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R2
Marco TulioRating 6.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Andrey PulyaevRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Gregory RodriguesRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

Rodrigues · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 6.6
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Jared CannonierRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

News & Media

Christian Leroy Duncan · Gregory Rodrigues
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