Christian Leroy Duncan vs Gregory Rodrigues — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

Manchester, United Kingdom

27 Jul 2024

Middleweight

49%

Duncan

51%

Rodrigues

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Christian Leroy Duncan

"CLD"

14 – 2

6'2"79" reachSwitch31 yrs5-fight win streakStriker

CFR 63

Gregory Rodrigues

"Robocop"

19 – 6

Striker4-fight win streak34 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'3"

CFR 66

★ Official Result

Gregory RodrigueswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Christian Leroy Duncan · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Rodrigues

→

Actual result

Rodrigues wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Duncan at 49% vs Rodrigues at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Rodrigues has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

DuncanRodrigues

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Duncan

Rodrigues

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'2"

Height

+6'3"

79"+

Reach

75"

31+

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

Duncan

Rodrigues

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

63.4

65.6

59.0

Performance Avg

58.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

100

Duncan

Rodrigues

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

7.8

/ 10

7.9

/ 10

6.8

Style: Pressure

6.8

4.6

Style: Volume

4.5

5 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

7 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

7Distance4

0Clinch1

0Ground2

Duncan

Rodrigues

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.9

/ 10

0.9

/ 10

0.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.6

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Duncan

Rodrigues

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.5 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

4 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

11/16 fights

Chin rating based on

14/25 fights

Duncan

Rodrigues

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

5-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

4-fight 🔥 win streak

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

Last 5

W · Dec · R5

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

L · KO · R4

Duncan

Rodrigues

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

63%

64%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Duncan

Rodrigues

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

7.8

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

7.9

0.9

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.9

0.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.6

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

6.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.8

4.6

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.5

Duncan

Strike Zones

Rodrigues

Duncan

Attacking

7 landed

Absorbing

7 absorbed

Rodrigues

Attacking

7 landed

Absorbing

7 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Duncan targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Rodrigues absorbs 43% of strikes there

🎯Rodrigues targets the head (100% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Duncan

RND

Rodrigues

0/0R00/0

Duncan · Last 5

Upcoming

Brendan Allen

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10

W · Dec · R3

Jared Cannonier

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07

W · Dec · R3

Roman Dolidze

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03

W · KO · R2

Marco Tulio

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11

W · KO · R1

Eryk Anders

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08

Rodrigues · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Anthony Hernandez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08

W · KO · R1

Brunno Ferreira

KO/TKO

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03

W · Dec · R3

Roman Kopylov

Decision

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · KO · R1

Jack Hermansson

KO/TKO

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

L · KO · R4

Jared Cannonier

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02

News & Media

Christian Leroy Duncan · Gregory Rodrigues

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