UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Las Vegas, USA
7 Mar 2026
Lightweight
VS
47%
Holloway
53%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 47% vs Oliveira at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holloway
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
69"
Reach
+74"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
63.3
56.8
Performance Avg
58.6
47
Quality of Victory
51
63
Momentum Score
100
Holloway
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
10 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
1
Body
2
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance9
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Holloway
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holloway
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Holloway
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Holloway
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
84%
10
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
17
11
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
HollowayOliveira
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (60% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (67% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04