METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Las Vegas, USA
30 Nov 2013
Lightweight
VS
27%
Maynard
73%
Diaz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:38
★ Official Result
Nate DiazwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:38
def. Gray Maynard · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Diaz wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Maynard's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MaynardDiaz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Maynard
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+76"
47
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Maynard
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.3
35.3
41.4
Performance Avg
53.4
28
Quality of Victory
50
60
Momentum Score
100
Maynard
Diaz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
1.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
28
1
Body
5
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance15
1Clinch18
1Ground0
Maynard
Diaz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.6
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maynard
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
58
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20 fights
Chin rating based on
27/35 fights
Maynard
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Maynard
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
10
10
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Maynard
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.6
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.3
2.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
MaynardDiaz
Strike Zones
Maynard
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Maynard targets the head (60% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (85% of attacks) — Maynard absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Maynard
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
Maynard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Maynard · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Nik LentzRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Teruto IshiharaRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · 2017-07
L · Dec · R3
Ryan HallRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Fernando BrunoRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Alexander YakovlevRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08