UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
21 Jan 2023
Welterweight
VS
49%
Alves
51%
Dalby
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dalby
This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 49% vs Dalby at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Dalby throws more volume but Alves connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alves
Dalby
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+74"
35+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Dalby
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
41.4
49.3
Performance Avg
41.9
49
Quality of Victory
29
30
Momentum Score
45
Alves
Dalby
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.9
49%
Strike Accuracy
48%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
34
2
Body
17
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
29Distance41
1Clinch12
0Ground0
Alves
Dalby
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Dalby
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
15/30 fights
Alves
Dalby
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
45
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Alves
Dalby
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
13%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Dalby
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.7
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.2
AlvesDalby
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
53 absorbedDalby
Attacking
53 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (90% of attacks) — Dalby absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Dalby targets the head (64% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Dalby
0/0R00/0
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Dalby · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Alves · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 6.3Decision
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UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · KO · R2
Jeremiah WellsRating 4.1KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Saygid IzagakhmaevRating 4.5Decision
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