UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Sao Paulo, Brazil
7 Nov 2015
Lightweight
VS
65%
Burns
35%
Magomedov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Burns
Burns holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Magomedov has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Burns has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Magomedov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Burns
Magomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"+
Reach
70"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Magomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
21.2
48.1
Performance Avg
51.3
40
Quality of Victory
30
28
Momentum Score
100
Burns
Magomedov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
49%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
16
2
Body
3
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
8Distance22
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Burns
Magomedov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burns
Magomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
6/22 fights
Burns
Magomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
100
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Burns
Magomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
20%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burns
Magomedov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
BurnsMagomedov
Strike Zones
Burns
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedMagomedov
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (56% of attacks) — Magomedov absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Magomedov targets the head (67% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burns
RND
Magomedov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Magomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Magomedov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 5.2Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
L · Dec · R3
Beneil DariushRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · KO · R3
Elias SilverioRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo DammRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05