UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Sunrise, USA
27 Apr 2019
Middleweight
VS
27%
Souza
73%
Hermansson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hermansson
Hermansson is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Souza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Hermansson throws more volume but Souza connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Souza's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hermansson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Souza
Hermansson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
72"
Reach
+77"
46
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Souza
Hermansson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
53.8
54.6
Performance Avg
48.1
53
Quality of Victory
42
56
Momentum Score
97
Souza
Hermansson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.1
56%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
26
10
Body
8
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
20Distance27
6Clinch8
0Ground0
Souza
Hermansson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Souza
Hermansson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/36 fights
Chin rating based on
19/34 fights
Souza
Hermansson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
97
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Souza
Hermansson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
55%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Souza
Hermansson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
SouzaHermansson
Strike Zones
Souza
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedHermansson
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Souza targets the head (62% of attacks) — Hermansson absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Hermansson targets the head (74% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 74% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Souza
RND
Hermansson
0/0R00/0
Souza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Hermansson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Souza · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4Submission
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
Hermansson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Joe PyferRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Roman DolidzeRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07