METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Heavyweight
VS
63%
Hardy
37%
Castro
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Greg HardywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Yorgan De Castro · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Hardy
→
Actual result
Hardy wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Hardy holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Castro has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Castro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Hardy's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HardyCastro
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hardy
Castro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'0"
80"+
Reach
74"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hardy
Castro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.7
17.5
47.8
Performance Avg
46.0
50
Quality of Victory
60
76
Momentum Score
29
Hardy
Castro
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.4
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
6.6
Style: Pressure
7.8
2.9
Style: Volume
0.5
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
2
Body
1
9
Leg
4
RangeRange
14Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Hardy
Castro
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hardy
Castro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
74
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/9 fights
Hardy
Castro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
29
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Hardy
Castro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hardy
Castro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
HardyCastro
Strike Zones
Hardy
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCastro
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hardy targets the legs (64% of attacks) — Castro absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Castro targets the legs (80% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hardy
RND
Castro
0/0R00/0
Hardy · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacKO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaKO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Marcin TyburaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · KO · R2
Maurice GreeneKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Yorgan De CastroDecision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
Castro · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Jarjis DanhoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Carlos FelipeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Greg HardyDecision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Justin TafaKO/TKO
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10