UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Heavyweight
VS
63%
Hardy
37%
Castro
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hardy
Hardy holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Castro has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Castro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Hardy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hardy's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hardy
Castro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'0"
80"+
Reach
74"
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hardy
Castro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.7
17.5
47.8
Performance Avg
46.0
50
Quality of Victory
60
76
Momentum Score
29
Hardy
Castro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.5
50%
Strike Accuracy
30%
8.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
2
Body
1
9
Leg
4
RangeRange
14Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Hardy
Castro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hardy
Castro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
74
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/9 fights
Hardy
Castro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
29
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Hardy
Castro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hardy
Castro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
HardyCastro
Strike Zones
Hardy
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCastro
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hardy targets the legs (64% of attacks) — Castro absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Castro targets the legs (80% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hardy
RND
Castro
0/0R00/0
Hardy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Castro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Hardy · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · KO · R2
Maurice GreeneRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Yorgan De CastroRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
Castro · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Jarjis DanhoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Carlos FelipeRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Greg HardyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Justin TafaRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10