UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
Montreal, Canada
11 Dec 2010
Welterweight
VS
55%
Alves
45%
Howard
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
JH
John Howard
"Doomsday"
24 – 13
Well-Rounded43 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'7"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alves

This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 55% vs Howard at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Alves throws more volume but Howard connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Howard has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Alves
Howard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
+72"
42+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Howard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
13.7
47.3
Performance Avg
40.1
42
Quality of Victory
34
63
Momentum Score
40
Alves
Howard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
57%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
7 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
7
3
Body
2
14
Leg
8
RangeRange
28Distance13
2Clinch4
0Ground0
Alves
Howard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Howard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
14/37 fights
Alves
Howard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Alves
Howard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
29%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Howard
Striking5.8 / 3.9Volume4.3 / 6.7Grappling1.5 / 1.7Wrestling1.0 / 1.2Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure5.4 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Alves
Strike Zones
Howard
Alves
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY14LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY8LEGS17 absorbed
Howard
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY8LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY14LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the legs (47% of attacks) — Howard absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Howard targets the legs (47% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Howard
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Howard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.9L4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W2.8L2009-012010-082013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

Howard · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Tim MeansRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · KO · R1
Lorenz LarkinRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04

News & Media

Thiago Alves · John Howard
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