UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
Toronto, Canada
30 Apr 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
48%
Machida
52%
Couture
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:05
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
RC
Randy Couture
"The Natural"
19 – 11
Well-Rounded62 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'1"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Couture

This is a genuine toss-up — Machida at 48% vs Couture at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Couture has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Striking split: Machida throws more volume but Couture connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Couture has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Machida
Couture
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+75"
47+
Age
62
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Couture
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
20.6
53.8
Performance Avg
62.4
45
Quality of Victory
60
78
Momentum Score
72
Machida
Couture
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.9
54%
Strike Accuracy
61%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
7 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Machida
Couture
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Couture
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
24/30 fights
Machida
Couture
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
72
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Machida
Couture
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
63%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
4
8
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Machida
Couture
Striking5.7 / 5.1Volume5.3 / 3.8Grappling1.7 / 2.8Wrestling1.2 / 1.9Submission0.6 / 2.5Pressure5.5 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Machida
Strike Zones
Couture
Machida
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Couture
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the head (80% of attacks) — Couture absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Couture targets the head (100% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Machida
RND
Couture
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Couture · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.2W2.1L4.0L5.2W4.5W4.0L4.2W1.5L5.5W2.1L4.5W5.2W2.1L5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W2.8L1997-052001-112004-082008-112011-04
WinLossTrend

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Couture · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Lyoto MachidaRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
W · Sub · R1
James ToneyRating 5
Submission
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Mark ColemanRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
W · Dec · R3
Brandon VeraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Antonio Rodrigo NogueiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08

News & Media

Lyoto Machida · Randy Couture
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