UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Las Vegas, USA
18 Nov 2023
Featherweight
VS
67%
Saragih
33%
Alexander
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:31
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Saragih
Saragih holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Alexander has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Saragih has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Alexander has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Saragih's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alexander has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Saragih
Alexander
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+73"
31
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Saragih
Alexander
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.5
25.3
46.0
Performance Avg
25.0
60
Quality of Victory
25
43
Momentum Score
28
Saragih
Alexander
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
59%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
1
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance11
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Saragih
Alexander
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Saragih
Alexander
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
44
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/19 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Saragih
Alexander
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Saragih
Alexander
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Saragih
Alexander
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
SaragihAlexander
Strike Zones
Saragih
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedAlexander
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Saragih targets the head (75% of attacks) — Alexander absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Alexander targets the head (55% of attacks) — Saragih absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Saragih
RND
Alexander
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Saragih · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Alexander · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.4WinLossTrend
Saragih · Last 4
L · KO · R1
JooSang YooRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Westin WilsonRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Lucas AlexanderRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · KO · R2
Anshul JubliRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
Alexander · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Bogdan GradRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Jeka SaragihRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Steven PetersonRating 4.5Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Joanderson BritoRating 3.1Submission
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