UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger
Omaha, USA
15 Feb 2012
Middleweight
VS
54%
Simpson
46%
Markes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AS
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
12 – 5
6'0"73" reachOrthodox51 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
RM
Ronny Markes
17 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'1"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Simpson

This is a genuine toss-up — Simpson at 54% vs Markes at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Simpson throws more volume but Markes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Simpson's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Markes has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Simpson
Markes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+75"
51
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Simpson
Markes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
14.9
46.0
Performance Avg
39.0
34
Quality of Victory
25
76
Momentum Score
70
Simpson
Markes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
49%
Strike Accuracy
61%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
6
Body
1
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
12Distance10
1Clinch5
0Ground2
Simpson
Markes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Simpson
Markes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
56
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
5/22 fights
Simpson
Markes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
70
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Simpson
Markes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Simpson
Markes
Striking4.1 / 1.2Volume7.0 / 9.2Grappling1.7 / 2.4Wrestling1.2 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 1.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.8
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.2
Simpson
Strike Zones
Markes
Simpson
Attacking
6HEAD6BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY8LEGS17 absorbed
Markes
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY8LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD6BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Simpson targets the head (46% of attacks) — Markes absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Markes targets the head (47% of attacks) — Simpson absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Simpson
RND
Markes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Simpson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.4W4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W2.8L2009-042010-062011-072012-072012-10
WinLossTrend

Markes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L1.5L2011-082012-022013-012013-112014-03
WinLossTrend

Simpson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Mike PierceRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Ronny MarkesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Eric SchaferRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07

Markes · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · 2014-03
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Andrew CraigRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · 2013-01
W · Dec · R3
Aaron SimpsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Karlos VemolaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08

News & Media

Aaron Simpson · Ronny Markes
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