UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Houston, USA
19 Oct 2013
Featherweight
VS
2%
Larsen
98%
Fili
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:53
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Fili
Fili is a strong favourite at 98% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Fili has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Striking split: Fili throws more volume but Larsen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Larsen's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fili has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Larsen
Fili
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+74"
42
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Larsen
Fili
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.0
48.8
0.0
Performance Avg
42.0
0
Quality of Victory
35
0
Momentum Score
100
Larsen
Fili
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
58%
Strike Accuracy
37%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
15
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Larsen
Fili
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Larsen
Fili
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
0
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/13 fights
Chin rating based on
26/38 fights
Larsen
Fili
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Larsen
Fili
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
31%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Larsen
Fili
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
LarsenFili
Strike Zones
Larsen
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedFili
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Larsen targets the head (67% of attacks) — Fili absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Fili targets the head (94% of attacks) — Larsen absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Larsen
RND
Fili
0/0R00/0
Larsen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.0WinLossTrend
Fili · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Larsen · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Andre FiliRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · KO · R3
Lucas MartinsRating 4KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · KO · R1
Joe ProctorRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06
Fili · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jose DelgadoRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Sub · R1
Melquizael CostaRating 2.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 5Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
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