UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
29 Oct 2011
Lightweight
VS
34%
Siver
66%
Cerrone
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:22
DS
Dennis Siver
23 – 11
5'6"70" reachOrthodox47 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
DC
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36 – 17
Well-Rounded6-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'1"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cerrone

Cerrone holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Siver has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cerrone has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Cerrone has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Siver's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Siver
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+6'1"
70"
Reach
+73"
47
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Siver
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
28.2
46.1
Performance Avg
53.0
37
Quality of Victory
47
43
Momentum Score
63
Siver
Cerrone
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.3
34%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
3
Body
2
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance7
2Clinch1
0Ground1
Siver
Cerrone
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Siver
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
7
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/34 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Siver
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
63
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Siver
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
70%
3
KO / TKO Wins
10
2
Submission Wins
6
7
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Siver
Cerrone
Striking3.7 / 5.6Volume5.9 / 3.7Grappling2.7 / 2.8Wrestling1.9 / 2.0Submission1.7 / 2.6Pressure4.7 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Siver
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Siver
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY3LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Cerrone
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY3LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Siver targets the head (50% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the head (56% of attacks) — Siver absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Siver
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Siver · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.5L5.2W5.5L1.5L5.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W4.5W4.5L4.5W4.1L5.5L4.5W2007-042009-062011-022013-072017-06
WinLossTrend

Cerrone · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W4.5W6.4W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.7L5.2W5.0W5.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W1.7L5.0W5.5W5.2W5.9W2.8L5.8L1.5L5.0W6.6L5.0W6.1W4.5W5.3L3.1L3.5L5.5L1.5L3.2L2011-022013-112016-062019-052022-07
WinLossTrend

Siver · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
BJ PennRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Tatsuya KawajiriRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
Upcoming
Manvel Gamburyan
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12

Cerrone · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2
Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko Price
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01

News & Media

Dennis Siver · Donald Cerrone
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