UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Jacksonville, USA
24 Jun 2023
Lightweight
VS
42%
Peek
58%
Mariscal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mariscal
This is a genuine toss-up — Peek at 42% vs Mariscal at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Peek has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Peek throws more volume but Mariscal connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Peek
Mariscal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
31+
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Peek
Mariscal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.9
56.9
41.5
Performance Avg
51.9
43
Quality of Victory
31
43
Momentum Score
80
Peek
Mariscal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
27
8
Body
3
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance25
0Clinch8
0Ground0
Peek
Mariscal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Peek
Mariscal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
6/25 fights
Peek
Mariscal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
80
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Peek
Mariscal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Peek
Mariscal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
PeekMariscal
Strike Zones
Peek
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedMariscal
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Peek targets the body (57% of attacks) — Mariscal absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Mariscal targets the head (82% of attacks) — Peek absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Peek
RND
Mariscal
0/0R00/0
Peek · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Mariscal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Peek · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Yanal AshmouzRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Charlie CampbellRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · Dec · R3
Mohammad YahyaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Erick GonzalezRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
Mariscal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ricardo RamosRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Morgan CharriereRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Jack JenkinsRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09