UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Vancouver, Canada
27 Aug 2016
Welterweight
VS
59%
Maia
41%
Condit
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:52
DM
Demian Maia
28 – 11
6'1"72" reachSouthpaw48 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
CC
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32 – 14
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Maia

This is a genuine toss-up — Maia at 59% vs Condit at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Condit throws more volume but Maia connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Condit has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Maia
Condit
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
+75"
48
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Maia
Condit
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.4
22.3
50.8
Performance Avg
47.8
40
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
20
Maia
Condit
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Maia
Condit
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maia
Condit
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
30
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
19/46 fights
Maia
Condit
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Maia
Condit
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
44%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
11
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maia
Condit
Striking1.8 / 5.4Volume5.0 / 4.5Grappling5.1 / 1.1Wrestling3.6 / 0.8Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Maia
Strike Zones
Condit
Maia
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Condit
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (100% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Condit targets the head (100% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maia
RND
Condit
0/0R00/0

Maia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.4W5.5W5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.3L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.9W5.6W5.9W5.0W4.5W5.5L6.8L6.6L5.0W4.5W5.2W1.7L6.6L2007-102010-122014-052018-052021-06
WinLossTrend

Condit · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.4W2.8L4.1W5.8L1.5L6.1L2.8L3.5L4.7W4.9W6.1L2009-042012-022015-052018-122021-07
WinLossTrend

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

Condit · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04

News & Media

Demian Maia · Carlos Condit
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