UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Lightweight
VS
48%
Ferguson
52%
Green
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Green
This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 48% vs Green at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Green has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Green has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Green
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
71"
42
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Green
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
49.0
54.2
Performance Avg
45.9
49
Quality of Victory
38
52
Momentum Score
85
Ferguson
Green
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
3.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
34
7
Body
9
4
Leg
5
RangeRange
23Distance45
1Clinch0
0Ground3
Ferguson
Green
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Green
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
30/52 fights
Ferguson
Green
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
85
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Ferguson
Green
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
44%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
6
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Green
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.9
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
FergusonGreen
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedGreen
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (54% of attacks) — Green absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Green targets the head (71% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Green
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Green · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
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L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Green · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 5.5Submission
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W · KO · R2
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.6KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2Submission
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