Tony Ferguson vs King Green — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

Salt Lake City, USA

29 Jul 2023

Lightweight

47%

Ferguson

53%

Green

Win Probability

Submission

Round 3 · 4:54

Tony Ferguson

"El Cucuy"

26 – 11

5'11"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs8-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 45

King Green

35 – 17

Well-Rounded4-fight win streak40 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"

CFR 50

★ Official Result

King GreenwinsSubmissionR3 · 4:54

def. Tony Ferguson · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Green

→

Actual result

Green wins

Submission · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 47% vs Green at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Green has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

FergusonGreen

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Ferguson

Green

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'10"

76"+

Reach

71"

Age

+40

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Ferguson

Green

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

45.2

50.1

54.2

Performance Avg

47.2

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Ferguson

Green

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.3

/ 10

4.1

/ 10

6.1

Style: Pressure

5.0

3.4

Style: Volume

5.4

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

23Distance45

1Clinch0

0Ground3

Ferguson

Green

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.8

/ 10

2.7

/ 10

2.7

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.9

4.0

Submission Style (/10)

1.8

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Ferguson

Green

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R3.5 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.2 stoppage

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

5 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

24/37 fights

Chin rating based on

32/52 fights

Ferguson

Green

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

8-fight 📉 slide

Current form

4-fight 🔥 win streak

L · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

L · Sub · R4

L · KO · R2

Last 5

Upcoming

W · KO · R1

W · Sub · R1

W · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

Ferguson

Green

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

60%

47%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferguson

Green

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.1

3.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.7

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.9

4.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.8

6.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.0

3.4

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.4

Ferguson

Strike Zones

Green

Ferguson

Attacking

24 landed

Absorbing

48 absorbed

Green

Attacking

48 landed

Absorbing

24 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Ferguson targets the head (54% of attacks) — Green absorbs 54% of strikes there

🎯Green targets the head (71% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferguson

RND

Green

0/0R00/0

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Michael Chiesa

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

L · Dec · R3

Paddy Pimblett

Decision

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

L · Sub · R3

King Green

Submission

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

L · Sub · R4

Nate Diaz

Submission

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09

L · KO · R2

Michael Chandler

KO/TKO

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Green · Last 5

Upcoming

Esteban Ribovics

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · 2026-10

W · KO · R1

Terrance McKinney

KO/TKO

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

W · Sub · R1

Jeremy Stephens

Submission

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

W · KO · R2

Daniel Zellhuber

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02

W · Dec · R3

Lance Gibson Jr.

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12

News & Media

Tony Ferguson · King Green

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