UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
Adelaide, Australia
9 May 2015
Middleweight
VS
41%
Kelly
59%
Alvey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alvey
This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 41% vs Alvey at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Alvey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Kelly throws more volume but Alvey connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kelly's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alvey has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kelly
Alvey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
70"
Reach
+75"
48
Age
+40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Kelly
Alvey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
22.9
44.4
Performance Avg
44.3
34
Quality of Victory
45
65
Momentum Score
43
Kelly
Alvey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Kelly
Alvey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kelly
Alvey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
24/51 fights
Kelly
Alvey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Kelly
Alvey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelly
Alvey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
KellyAlvey
Strike Zones
Kelly
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedAlvey
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Alvey targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelly
RND
Alvey
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Alvey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Kelly · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
Alvey · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendan AllenRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R2
Julian MarquezRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Upcoming
Da Woon JungDecision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10