UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
Newark, USA
18 Apr 2015
Featherweight
VS
45%
Swanson
55%
Holloway
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:58
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holloway
This is a genuine toss-up — Swanson at 45% vs Holloway at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Swanson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Swanson
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
70"+
Reach
69"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Swanson
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
56.2
48.8
Performance Avg
56.8
40
Quality of Victory
47
56
Momentum Score
63
Swanson
Holloway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.2
56%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
8 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
11
3
Body
6
7
Leg
4
RangeRange
9Distance15
2Clinch1
0Ground5
Swanson
Holloway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swanson
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
Swanson
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
63
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Swanson
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
52%
8
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Swanson
Holloway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
SwansonHolloway
Strike Zones
Swanson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedHolloway
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the legs (64% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (52% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Swanson
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0
Swanson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Swanson · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04