METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
Newark, USA
18 Apr 2015
Featherweight
VS
44%
Swanson
56%
Holloway
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:58
★ Official Result
Max HollowaywinsSubmissionR3 · 3:58
def. Cub Swanson · UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Holloway
→
Actual result
Holloway wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Swanson at 44% vs Holloway at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SwansonHolloway
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Swanson
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
70"+
Reach
69"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Swanson
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
56.9
48.8
Performance Avg
57.7
40
Quality of Victory
48
56
Momentum Score
63
Swanson
Holloway
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.2
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
5.3
Style: Pressure
6.0
5.2
Style: Volume
4.8
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
11 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
11
3
Body
6
7
Leg
4
RangeRange
9Distance15
2Clinch1
0Ground5
Swanson
Holloway
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.8
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Swanson
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
Swanson
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
63
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Swanson
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
54%
8
KO / TKO Wins
11
0
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Swanson
Holloway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
SwansonHolloway
Strike Zones
Swanson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedHolloway
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the legs (64% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (52% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Swanson
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0
Swanson · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrKO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliDecision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduDecision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
Holloway · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04