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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
Houston, USA
7 Aug 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
48%
Kowalkiewicz
52%
Penne
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:32
Karolina
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16 – 10
5'3"64" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 33
Jessica
Jessica Penne
14 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'5"
CFR 36
★ Official Result
Jessica PennewinsSubmissionR1 · 4:32
def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Penne
→
Actual result
Penne wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Kowalkiewicz at 48% vs Penne at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Kowalkiewicz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Kowalkiewicz's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Penne has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
KowalkiewiczPenne
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kowalkiewicz
Penne
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'5"
64"
Reach
+67"
40+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kowalkiewicz
Penne
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.7
36.1
35.6
Performance Avg
34.1
28
Quality of Victory
35
40
Momentum Score
63
Kowalkiewicz
Penne
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
1.0
42%
Strike Accuracy
32%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
9
0
Body
3
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance4
0Clinch0
4Ground8
Kowalkiewicz
Penne
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kowalkiewicz
Penne
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
38
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
9/23 fights
Kowalkiewicz
Penne
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
63
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Kowalkiewicz
Penne
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kowalkiewicz
Penne
Striking0.9 / 0.7Volume8.1 / 6.0Grappling3.0 / 4.3Wrestling2.1 / 3.0Submission1.1 / 3.3Pressure2.2 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Kowalkiewicz
Strike Zones
Penne
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY5LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Penne
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY5LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the legs (63% of attacks) — Penne absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Penne targets the head (75% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kowalkiewicz
RND
Penne
0/0R00/0

Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.9W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W2.3L5.5L6.7L6.5L1.6L5.2W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.4L6.8L4.6L2015-122017-102020-022023-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Penne · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W2.8L3.5L5.5L5.0W5.0W5.5L3.4L5.5L2014-122017-042022-072024-10
WinLossTrend

Kowalkiewicz · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Penne · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Elise ReedRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Tabatha RicciRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Emily DucoteRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
W · Sub · R1
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5
Submission
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04

News & Media

Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jessica Penne
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