UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
21 Oct 2023
Middleweight
VS
44%
Usman
56%
Chimaev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Kamaru
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21 – 4
6'0"76" reachSwitch39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Khamzat
Khamzat Chimaev
"Borz"
15 – 1
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 73

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chimaev

This is a genuine toss-up — Usman at 44% vs Chimaev at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Chimaev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Usman
Chimaev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
76"+
Reach
75"
39
Age
+32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Usman
Chimaev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
73.2
61.2
Performance Avg
65.1
46
Quality of Victory
49
55
Momentum Score
100
Usman
Chimaev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.6
54%
Strike Accuracy
55%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
9
2
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
21Distance12
0Clinch0
1Ground1
Usman
Chimaev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
4.4
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
0.6
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
1
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Usman
Chimaev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/16 fights
Usman
Chimaev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
100
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Usman
Chimaev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Usman
Chimaev
Striking4.2 / 4.0Volume7.2 / 4.5Grappling2.1 / 4.4Wrestling1.5 / 3.0Submission0.6 / 4.4Pressure4.7 / 7.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Usman
Strike Zones
Chimaev
Usman
Attacking
20HEAD2BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY4LEGS13 absorbed
Chimaev
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY4LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD2BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (91% of attacks) — Chimaev absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Chimaev targets the head (69% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Usman
RND
Chimaev
0/0R00/0

Usman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.6W4.5W4.7W5.6W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.8W4.5W5.5W5.1W5.8W5.1L6.6L7.4L5.7W2015-072017-092019-122022-082025-06
WinLossTrend

Chimaev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W5.0W6.1W5.8W4.7W5.6W5.6W5.9W6.4W6.6L2020-072021-102023-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Usman · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

Chimaev · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
Robert WhittakerRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09

News & Media

Kamaru Usman · Khamzat Chimaev
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