UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Women's Strawweight
VS
61%
Esparza
39%
Waterson-Gomez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Carla
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20 – 8
5'1"63" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Michelle
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18 – 13
Well-Rounded5-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'3"
CFR 27

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Esparza

Esparza holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Waterson-Gomez has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Waterson-Gomez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Waterson-Gomez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'3"
63"+
Reach
62"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
26.5
45.9
Performance Avg
36.8
35
Quality of Victory
35
60
Momentum Score
0
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.3
40%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
8
4
Body
7
3
Leg
7
RangeRange
21Distance20
4Clinch2
0Ground0
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/31 fights
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Striking2.3 / 0.8Volume7.7 / 6.1Grappling2.7 / 4.3Wrestling1.9 / 3.0Submission1.0 / 3.3Pressure3.3 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Esparza
Strike Zones
Waterson-Gomez
Esparza
Attacking
18HEAD4BODY3LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD7BODY7LEGS22 absorbed
Waterson-Gomez
Attacking
8HEAD7BODY7LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD4BODY3LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (72% of attacks) — Waterson-Gomez absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Waterson-Gomez targets the head (36% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 36% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Esparza
RND
Waterson-Gomez
0/0R00/0

Esparza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0106.7W2.1L4.5W5.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L5.9L5.2W5.7W4.5W5.2W6.2W5.9W4.0L6.2L2014-122017-062019-042021-052024-10
WinLossTrend

Waterson-Gomez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5W5.0W4.2L6.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.8L4.6W6.2L3.8L5.5L3.4L6.7L2015-072018-042020-052023-042024-06
WinLossTrend

Esparza · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Waterson-Gomez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Marina RodriguezRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05

News & Media

Carla Esparza · Michelle Waterson-Gomez
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