METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Women's Strawweight
VS
61%
Esparza
39%
Waterson-Gomez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18 – 13
Well-Rounded5-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'3"
CFR 27
★ Official Result
Carla EsparzawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Michelle Waterson-Gomez · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Esparza
→
Actual result
Esparza wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Esparza holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Waterson-Gomez has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Waterson-Gomez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EsparzaWaterson-Gomez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'3"
63"+
Reach
62"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
26.5
45.9
Performance Avg
36.8
35
Quality of Victory
35
60
Momentum Score
0
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
3.5
7.7
Style: Volume
6.1
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
8
4
Body
7
3
Leg
7
RangeRange
21Distance20
4Clinch2
0Ground0
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/31 fights
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Waterson-Gomez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
EsparzaWaterson-Gomez
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedWaterson-Gomez
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (72% of attacks) — Waterson-Gomez absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Waterson-Gomez targets the head (36% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 36% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Waterson-Gomez
0/0R00/0
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Waterson-Gomez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonDecision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezKO/TKO
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L · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Marina RodriguezDecision
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