UFC 99: The Comeback
Cologne, Germany
13 Jun 2009
Welterweight
VS
50%
Hathaway
50%
Story
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hathaway
This is a genuine toss-up — Hathaway at 50% vs Story at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Story has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Story has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hathaway
Story
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
71"
38+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Hathaway
Story
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
17.0
49.1
Performance Avg
46.0
30
Quality of Victory
35
60
Momentum Score
65
Hathaway
Story
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
4Clinch0
0Ground3
Hathaway
Story
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hathaway
Story
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/19 fights
Chin rating based on
19/28 fights
Hathaway
Story
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
65
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Hathaway
Story
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hathaway
Story
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
8.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
HathawayStory
Strike Zones
Hathaway
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedStory
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hathaway targets the head (63% of attacks) — Story absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Story targets the head (80% of attacks) — Hathaway absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hathaway
RND
Story
0/0R00/0
Hathaway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Story · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Hathaway · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Dong Hyun KimRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · 2014-03
W · Dec · R3
John MaguireRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · Dec · R3
Pascal KraussRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · Dec · R3
Kris McCrayRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
L · Dec · R3
Mike PyleRating 5.5Decision
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10
Story · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R5
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Sub · R2
Leonardo MafraRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03