UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Las Vegas, USA
14 Mar 2026
Welterweight
VS
42%
Curtis
58%
Orolbai
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Chris
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
32 – 13
5'10"75" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Myktybek
Myktybek Orolbai
16 – 2
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 67

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Orolbai

This is a genuine toss-up — Curtis at 42% vs Orolbai at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Curtis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Curtis
Orolbai
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
74"
38
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Curtis
Orolbai
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.5
67.1
46.3
Performance Avg
59.0
41
Quality of Victory
43
54
Momentum Score
92
Curtis
Orolbai
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
0.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
3
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Curtis
Orolbai
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Curtis
Orolbai
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/45 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Curtis
Orolbai
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
92
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Curtis
Orolbai
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Curtis
Orolbai
Striking6.1 / 3.7Volume5.1 / 4.9Grappling1.2 / 4.2Wrestling0.8 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure5.1 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Curtis
Strike Zones
Orolbai
Curtis
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Orolbai
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Curtis targets the body (75% of attacks) — Orolbai absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Orolbai targets the body (50% of attacks) — Curtis absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Curtis
RND
Orolbai
0/0R00/0

Curtis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.0W6.6W5.8W6.4L6.4W5.8L4.5W6.8L5.0L5.1W7.1L2021-112022-072024-012025-072026-03
WinLossTrend

Orolbai · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0107.1W5.3W6.1L5.2W5.9W5.2W2023-112024-052024-102025-062025-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Curtis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R5
Brendan AllenRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

Orolbai · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Tofiq MusayevRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Elves BrenerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Chris Curtis · Myktybek Orolbai
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