METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Las Vegas, USA
14 Mar 2026
Welterweight
VS
46%
Curtis
54%
Orolbai
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Myktybek OrolbaiwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Chris Curtis · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Orolbai
→
Actual result
Orolbai wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Curtis at 46% vs Orolbai at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CurtisOrolbai
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Curtis
Orolbai
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
74"
39
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Curtis
Orolbai
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.5
59.0
46.3
Performance Avg
54.2
41
Quality of Victory
43
54
Momentum Score
69
Curtis
Orolbai
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
5.1
Style: Pressure
6.3
5.1
Style: Volume
4.6
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
3
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Curtis
Orolbai
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Curtis
Orolbai
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/45 fights
Chin rating based on
7/18 fights
Curtis
Orolbai
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
69
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Curtis
Orolbai
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Curtis
Orolbai
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
CurtisOrolbai
Strike Zones
Curtis
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedOrolbai
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Curtis targets the body (75% of attacks) — Orolbai absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Orolbai targets the body (50% of attacks) — Curtis absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Curtis
RND
Orolbai
0/0R00/0
Curtis · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R5
Brendan AllenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultDecision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
Orolbai · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Jeremiah WellsSubmission
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08
W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Tofiq MusayevSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiDecision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10