UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
2 Jan 2016
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Miocic
47%
Arlovski
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miocic
This is a genuine toss-up — Miocic at 53% vs Arlovski at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miocic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Miocic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Miocic's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Arlovski has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miocic
Arlovski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
80"+
Reach
77"
43+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Miocic
Arlovski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.3
49.1
64.9
Performance Avg
50.5
59
Quality of Victory
47
78
Momentum Score
94
Miocic
Arlovski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.5
53%
Strike Accuracy
47%
7.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
9 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
4
0
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
5Distance6
1Clinch1
5Ground0
Miocic
Arlovski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.9
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Miocic
Arlovski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
8
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
42/58 fights
Miocic
Arlovski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
94
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Miocic
Arlovski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
48%
9
KO / TKO Wins
9
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miocic
Arlovski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
MiocicArlovski
Strike Zones
Miocic
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedArlovski
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miocic targets the head (100% of attacks) — Arlovski absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Arlovski targets the head (57% of attacks) — Miocic absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miocic
RND
Arlovski
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Miocic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Arlovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Miocic · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Francis NgannouRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · Dec · R5
Daniel CormierRating 4.5Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · KO · R4
Daniel CormierRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · KO · R1
Daniel CormierRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07
Arlovski · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R2
Don'Tale MayesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Sub · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04