UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Oct 2025
Heavyweight
VS
72%
Walker
28%
Sutherland
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:24
Valter Walker
"The Clean Monster"
15 – 1
6'6"78" reachOrthodox28 yrs4-fight win streakSubmission Hunter
CFR 74
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Walker
Walker is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Walker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Sutherland has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sutherland has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Walker
Sutherland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'6"+
Height
6'3"
78"+
Reach
76"
28+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Walker
Sutherland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
73.9
28.7
64.4
Performance Avg
28.3
54
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
27
Walker
Sutherland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.8
51%
Strike Accuracy
59%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
2
Body
0
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Walker
Sutherland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
0.8
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Walker
Sutherland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/16 fights
Chin rating based on
3/16 fights
Walker
Sutherland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
27
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Walker
Sutherland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Walker
Sutherland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
1.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
WalkerSutherland
Strike Zones
Walker
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSutherland
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Walker targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Sutherland absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Sutherland targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Walker absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Walker
RND
Sutherland
0/0R00/0
Walker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Sutherland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Walker · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Louie SutherlandRating 5Submission
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R1
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 6.3Submission
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W · Sub · R1
Junior TafaRating 5.8Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
Sutherland · Last 3
W · Dec · R3
Tai TuivasaRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Brando PericicRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerRating 3.4Submission
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10