METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
17 Apr 2021
Heavyweight
VS
62%
Arlovski
38%
Sherman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Andrei ArlovskiwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Chase Sherman · UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Arlovski
→
Actual result
Arlovski wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Arlovski holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Sherman has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sherman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Arlovski's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sherman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ArlovskiSherman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Arlovski
Sherman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+78"
47
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arlovski
Sherman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
30.1
50.5
Performance Avg
38.4
47
Quality of Victory
46
94
Momentum Score
46
Arlovski
Sherman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
2.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.0
9 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
21
12
Body
6
11
Leg
7
RangeRange
46Distance33
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Arlovski
Sherman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Arlovski
Sherman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
42/58 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Arlovski
Sherman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
46
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Arlovski
Sherman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
48%
75%
9
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Arlovski
Sherman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.0
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
ArlovskiSherman
Strike Zones
Arlovski
Attacking
46 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedSherman
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
46 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Arlovski targets the head (50% of attacks) — Sherman absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Sherman targets the head (62% of attacks) — Arlovski absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Arlovski
RND
Sherman
0/0R00/0
Arlovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Sherman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Arlovski · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R2
Don'Tale MayesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Sub · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
Sherman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
W · KO · R3
Jared VanderaaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · Sub · R1
Jake CollierRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01