UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jun 2020
Featherweight
VS
44%
Caceres
56%
Hooper
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hooper
This is a genuine toss-up — Caceres at 44% vs Hooper at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hooper has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Hooper throws more volume but Caceres connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hooper has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Caceres
Hooper
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+74"
37
Age
+26
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Caceres
Hooper
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
50.9
42.2
Performance Avg
51.8
34
Quality of Victory
45
76
Momentum Score
51
Caceres
Hooper
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
33
Head
20
6
Body
2
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
32Distance21
1Clinch1
11Ground0
Caceres
Hooper
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Hooper
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
13/21 fights
Caceres
Hooper
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
51
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Caceres
Hooper
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Hooper
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
CaceresHooper
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedHooper
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (75% of attacks) — Hooper absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Hooper targets the head (91% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Hooper
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Hooper · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
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L · KO · R1
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 2.9KO/TKO
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Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
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