UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Charlotte, USA
13 May 2023
Welterweight
VS
52%
Brown
48%
McGee
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:09
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
This is a genuine toss-up — Brown at 52% vs McGee at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Brown has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: McGee throws more volume but Brown connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGee has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brown
McGee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
45
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
McGee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
38.7
54.0
Performance Avg
40.1
52
Quality of Victory
36
78
Momentum Score
50
Brown
McGee
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
60%
Strike Accuracy
39%
8.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
13 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
3
Body
2
6
Leg
4
RangeRange
10Distance6
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Brown
McGee
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
McGee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
14
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/45 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Brown
McGee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
50
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Brown
McGee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
27%
13
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
McGee
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
1.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
BrownMcGee
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedMcGee
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the legs (55% of attacks) — McGee absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯McGee targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
McGee
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
McGee · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Brown · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
McGee · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 5.1Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · KO · R1
Jeremiah WellsRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06