UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jan 2015
Welterweight
VS
45%
Lombard
55%
Burkman
Win Probability
JB
CFR 14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Burkman
This is a genuine toss-up — Lombard at 45% vs Burkman at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lombard has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Lombard has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lombard's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Burkman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lombard
Burkman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+72"
48
Age
+46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lombard
Burkman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.7
14.3
39.9
Performance Avg
34.7
48
Quality of Victory
36
0
Momentum Score
80
Lombard
Burkman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.9
47%
Strike Accuracy
43%
7.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
0
Body
1
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
13Distance6
2Clinch0
2Ground0
Lombard
Burkman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lombard
Burkman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/44 fights
Chin rating based on
19/44 fights
Lombard
Burkman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
80
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Lombard
Burkman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lombard
Burkman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
LombardBurkman
Strike Zones
Lombard
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedBurkman
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lombard targets the head (76% of attacks) — Burkman absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Burkman targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lombard absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lombard
RND
Burkman
0/0R00/0
Lombard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Burkman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Lombard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · R1
CB DollawayRating 4UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
L · KO · R3
Anthony SmithRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Johny HendricksRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
L · KO · R2
Dan HendersonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Burkman · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
L · Sub · R1
Michel PrazeresRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Zak OttowRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · Dec · R3
Paul FelderRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05