UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Fairfax, USA
11 Jan 2010
Middleweight
VS
88%
Catone
12%
Forbes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Catone
Catone is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Catone has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.
Striking split: Forbes throws more volume but Catone connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Forbes has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Catone
Forbes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
+75"
44
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Catone
Forbes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.3
1.8
38.7
Performance Avg
0.0
31
Quality of Victory
0
30
Momentum Score
0
Catone
Forbes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.4
1.1
37%
Strike Accuracy
27%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
5
1
Body
4
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance3
5Clinch6
1Ground0
Catone
Forbes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Catone
Forbes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/14 fights
Chin rating based on
3/20 fights
Catone
Forbes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Catone
Forbes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Catone
Forbes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CatoneForbes
Strike Zones
Catone
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedForbes
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Catone targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Forbes absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Forbes targets the head (56% of attacks) — Catone absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Catone
RND
Forbes
0/0R00/0
Catone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Forbes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Catone · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Tom WatsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Sub · R2
TJ WaldburgerRating 2.8Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Dec · R3
Constantinos PhilippouRating 4.5Decision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
W · Dec · R3
Jesse ForbesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz · 2010-01
Forbes · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Ryan JensenRating 1.5Submission
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · Dec · R3
Nick CatoneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz · 2010-01
L · KO · R1
Matt HamillRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Ortiz vs. Team Shamrock Finale · 2006-06