UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Middleweight
VS
68%
Weidman
32%
Romero
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:24
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Weidman
Weidman holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Romero has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Romero has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Weidman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Weidman
Romero
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
78"+
Reach
73"
41+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Weidman
Romero
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.1
24.0
57.0
Performance Avg
56.4
55
Quality of Victory
48
51
Momentum Score
100
Weidman
Romero
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
56%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
6
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground5
Weidman
Romero
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.0
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Weidman
Romero
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
92
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
7
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/24 fights
Chin rating based on
13/18 fights
Weidman
Romero
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
100
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Weidman
Romero
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
78%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Weidman
Romero
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.2
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
WeidmanRomero
Strike Zones
Weidman
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedRomero
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Weidman targets the body (100% of attacks) — Romero absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Romero targets the head (86% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Weidman
RND
Romero
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Weidman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Romero · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Weidman · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Eryk AndersRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
Romero · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Israel AdesanyaRating 6.9Decision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
L · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 6.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
W · KO · R3
Luke RockholdRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
L · Dec · R5
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker · 2017-07