★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Bantamweight
VS
50%
Dvalishvili
50%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Merab
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
21 – 5
5'6"68" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Umar
Umar Nurmagomedov
20 – 1
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak30 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'8"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dvalishvili

This is a genuine toss-up — Dvalishvili at 50% vs Nurmagomedov at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nurmagomedov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Dvalishvili
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
68"
Reach
+69"
35
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dvalishvili
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.4
60.4
53.2
Performance Avg
57.2
34
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
75
Dvalishvili
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
62%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
12
2
Body
5
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance18
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Dvalishvili
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dvalishvili
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
9/21 fights
Dvalishvili
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
75
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Dvalishvili
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
38%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
12
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dvalishvili
Nurmagomedov
Striking2.4 / 3.0Volume8.5 / 6.8Grappling2.6 / 3.5Wrestling1.8 / 2.5Submission0.7 / 2.5Pressure3.5 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
Dvalishvili
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Dvalishvili
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY2LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD5BODY1LEGS18 absorbed
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
12HEAD5BODY1LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY2LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dvalishvili targets the head (71% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (67% of attacks) — Dvalishvili absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dvalishvili
RND
Nurmagomedov
0/0R00/0

Dvalishvili · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L4.7L4.5W4.9W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.0W6.0W6.0W6.0W5.8W6.8W6.0W7.0L2017-122020-062023-032025-102025-12
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W5.3W5.7W5.8W5.6W6.0W6.8L5.6W5.6W2021-012023-012025-012026-01
WinLossTrend

Dvalishvili · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Petr YanRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Umar NurmagomedovRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Sean O'MalleyRating 6
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

News & Media

Merab Dvalishvili · Umar Nurmagomedov
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