UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
23 Jan 2021
Catch Weight
VS
21%
Lentz
79%
Evloev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Evloev
Evloev is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lentz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Evloev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lentz's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lentz
Evloev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+72"
41
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lentz
Evloev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
60.8
45.3
Performance Avg
55.0
35
Quality of Victory
25
53
Momentum Score
100
Lentz
Evloev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
39
5
Body
4
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
19Distance47
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Lentz
Evloev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lentz
Evloev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/42 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Lentz
Evloev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
10-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lentz
Evloev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lentz
Evloev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
10.0
LentzEvloev
Strike Zones
Lentz
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedEvloev
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lentz targets the head (63% of attacks) — Evloev absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Evloev targets the head (83% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lentz
RND
Evloev
0/0R00/0
Lentz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Evloev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Lentz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
Evloev · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 5.9Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 5.8Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06