UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
Vancouver, Canada
14 Jun 2014
Heavyweight
VS
76%
Arlovski
24%
Schaub
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Andrei
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34 – 24
6'3"77" reachOrthodox47 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 49
BS
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
10 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Arlovski

Arlovski is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Schaub throws more volume but Arlovski connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Arlovski's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Schaub has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Arlovski
Schaub
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+78"
47
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arlovski
Schaub
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
15.7
50.5
Performance Avg
49.2
47
Quality of Victory
46
94
Momentum Score
39
Arlovski
Schaub
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
39%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
9 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
11
0
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch1
0Ground12
Arlovski
Schaub
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Arlovski
Schaub
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
8
KO/TKO Losses
4
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
42/58 fights
Chin rating based on
11/15 fights
Arlovski
Schaub
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
39
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Arlovski
Schaub
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
48%
67%
9
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
1
12
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arlovski
Schaub
Striking5.0 / 6.1Volume5.3 / 3.8Grappling1.9 / 2.1Wrestling1.4 / 1.5Submission0.9 / 1.7Pressure5.0 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Arlovski
Strike Zones
Schaub
Arlovski
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD4BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Schaub
Attacking
11HEAD4BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arlovski targets the head (100% of attacks) — Schaub absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Schaub targets the head (73% of attacks) — Arlovski absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arlovski
RND
Schaub
0/0R00/0

Arlovski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W4.0L4.0L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.6L2.1L2.8L1.9L5.9L4.5W4.5W5.9L5.5L5.7L4.5W2.6L5.2W5.1W5.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W2.1L3.1L7.0L6.5L2000-112006-122017-062021-042024-06
WinLossTrend

Schaub · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0101.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W6.2L1.5L2009-122010-102012-042014-062014-12
WinLossTrend

Arlovski · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R2
Don'Tale MayesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Sub · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Schaub · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Sub · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 5
Submission
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Lavar JohnsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · KO · R1
Ben RothwellRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04

News & Media

Andrei Arlovski · Brendan Schaub
← Back to fights