UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Flyweight
VS
53%
Mokaev
47%
Filho
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:32
Muhammad
Muhammad Mokaev
"The Punisher"
13 – 0
5'7"70" reachOrthodox25 yrs7-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 63
Jafel
Jafel Filho
"Pastor"
17 – 5
Submission Hunter33 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'7"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mokaev

This is a genuine toss-up — Mokaev at 53% vs Filho at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Filho has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Filho has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Mokaev
Filho
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
68"
25+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mokaev
Filho
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.2
57.0
62.6
Performance Avg
52.4
38
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
46
Mokaev
Filho
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Mokaev
Filho
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mokaev
Filho
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/13 fights
Chin rating based on
6/22 fights
Mokaev
Filho
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Mokaev
Filho
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mokaev
Filho
Striking2.0 / 1.0Volume5.4 / 1.0Grappling5.6 / 8.0Wrestling3.9 / 5.6Submission5.7 / 10.0Pressure7.0 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
5.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mokaev
RND
Filho
0/0R00/0

Mokaev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.1W5.4W5.5W6.6W5.6W5.8W6.2W2022-032022-102023-102024-07
WinLossTrend

Filho · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.4L5.0W5.8W7.0L5.9W5.6L2023-032023-072024-032025-052025-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Mokaev · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Manel KapeRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Alex PerezRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
W · Sub · R3
Tim ElliottRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Sub · R3
Jafel FilhoRating 6.6
Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Sub · R3
Malcolm GordonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · 2022-10

Filho · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cody DurdenRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Clayton CarpenterRating 5.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Allan NascimentoRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · Sub · R1
Ode OsbourneRating 5.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
W · Sub · R1
Daniel BarezRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

News & Media

Muhammad Mokaev · Jafel Filho
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