UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2021
Bantamweight
VS
55%
Cruz
45%
Kenney
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DC
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
24 – 4
5'8"68" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 31
CK
Casey Kenney
16 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide35 yrsSouthpaw68" reach5'7"
CFR 26

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cruz

This is a genuine toss-up — Cruz at 55% vs Kenney at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Kenney has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cruz's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cruz
Kenney
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
68"
41
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Cruz
Kenney
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.2
25.8
50.3
Performance Avg
43.5
37
Quality of Victory
31
100
Momentum Score
55
Cruz
Kenney
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.6
39%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
11
9
Body
3
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
23Distance17
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Cruz
Kenney
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cruz
Kenney
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/28 fights
Chin rating based on
8/20 fights
Cruz
Kenney
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
55
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Cruz
Kenney
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cruz
Kenney
Striking2.8 / 1.3Volume8.3 / 7.7Grappling2.1 / 3.5Wrestling1.4 / 2.5Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure3.1 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
8.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Cruz
Strike Zones
Kenney
Cruz
Attacking
17HEAD9BODY1LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD3BODY4LEGS18 absorbed
Kenney
Attacking
11HEAD3BODY4LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD9BODY1LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cruz targets the head (63% of attacks) — Kenney absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Kenney targets the head (61% of attacks) — Cruz absorbs 61% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cruz
RND
Kenney
0/0R00/0

Cruz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.0W4.6W4.5W6.6L3.6L4.5W5.0W4.2L2011-072016-012020-052022-08
WinLossTrend

Kenney · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W4.5W6.8L5.0W5.1W5.3W5.5L6.8L2019-032020-022020-102021-032021-08
WinLossTrend

Cruz · Last 5

L · KO · R4
Marlon VeraRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
W · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 5
Decision
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Casey KenneyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · KO · R2
Henry CejudoRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12

Kenney · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
L · Dec · R3
Dominick CruzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
AlatengheiliRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
W · Sub · R1
Louis SmolkaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05

News & Media

Dominick Cruz · Casey Kenney
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