UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Women's Strawweight
VS
61%
Dern
39%
Ribas
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:56
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
5'4"63" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Amanda
Amanda Ribas
13 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'4"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dern

Dern holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Ribas has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ribas has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ribas has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Dern
Ribas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
63"
Reach
+66"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Ribas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.6
37.5
51.1
Performance Avg
43.3
39
Quality of Victory
36
94
Momentum Score
28
Dern
Ribas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.0
44%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
1
Body
0
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance4
1Clinch0
7Ground0
Dern
Ribas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dern
Ribas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
18
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Dern
Ribas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
28
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
Dern
Ribas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
43%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dern
Ribas
Striking1.4 / 2.5Volume5.7 / 5.7Grappling5.0 / 3.7Wrestling3.5 / 2.6Submission4.5 / 2.9Pressure5.2 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Dern
Strike Zones
Ribas
Dern
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY3LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Ribas
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY3LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ribas absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Ribas targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dern
RND
Ribas
0/0R00/0

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Ribas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.2W5.7W4.5W5.0W3.4L5.2W5.8L5.2W3.7L5.5W6.9L4.0L3.4L2019-062021-012023-062025-07
WinLossTrend

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Ribas · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Tabatha RicciRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · KO · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · KO · R2
Maycee BarberRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06

News & Media

Mackenzie Dern · Amanda Ribas
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