METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Women's Strawweight
VS
62%
Dern
38%
Ribas
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:56
★ Official Result
Mackenzie DernwinsSubmissionR3 · 4:56
def. Amanda Ribas · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dern
→
Actual result
Dern wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Dern holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Ribas has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Ribas has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DernRibas
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Dern
Ribas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
63"
Reach
+66"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Ribas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.4
37.5
52.7
Performance Avg
43.3
41
Quality of Victory
36
94
Momentum Score
28
Dern
Ribas
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
4.6
6.1
Style: Volume
5.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
1
Body
0
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance4
1Clinch0
7Ground0
Dern
Ribas
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
3.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
5
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dern
Ribas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
18
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/21 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Dern
Ribas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
28
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
Dern
Ribas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
43%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dern
Ribas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
DernRibas
Strike Zones
Dern
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedRibas
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ribas absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Ribas targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dern
RND
Ribas
0/0R00/0
Dern · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Gillian RobertsonDecision
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08
W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Ribas · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Tabatha RicciKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Mackenzie DernSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · KO · R3
Luana PinheiroKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · KO · R2
Maycee BarberKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06