UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson
Stockholm, Sweden
24 Jan 2015
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Gustafsson
48%
Johnson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:15
AG
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18 – 8
6'5"79" reachOrthodox39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 25
AJ
Anthony Johnson
"Rumble"
22 – 6
Knockout Artist42 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gustafsson

This is a genuine toss-up — Gustafsson at 52% vs Johnson at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gustafsson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Johnson has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gustafsson
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
78"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gustafsson
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.8
23.1
50.3
Performance Avg
60.4
47
Quality of Victory
55
39
Momentum Score
100
Gustafsson
Johnson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.5
44%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.8
5 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
29
0
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance9
0Clinch4
0Ground17
Gustafsson
Johnson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.4
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gustafsson
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
15 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/26 fights
Chin rating based on
19/28 fights
Gustafsson
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Gustafsson
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
85%
5
KO / TKO Wins
11
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gustafsson
Johnson
Striking6.1 / 9.8Volume3.5 / 2.6Grappling2.3 / 0.4Wrestling1.6 / 0.3Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure6.6 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.6
Gustafsson
Strike Zones
Johnson
Gustafsson
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD0BODY1LEGS30 absorbed
Johnson
Attacking
29HEAD0BODY1LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (97% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 97% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gustafsson
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Gustafsson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W7.3L5.1W1.5L5.5L5.1W5.9W4.5L4.5L1.5L2.7L2009-112011-122015-012019-062022-07
WinLossTrend

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W2.8L5.0W4.0L5.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L5.2W5.0W5.4W2.1L2007-062009-022012-012015-092017-04
WinLossTrend

Gustafsson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05

Johnson · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Daniel CormierRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · KO · R1
Ryan BaderRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Jimi ManuwaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Daniel CormierRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

News & Media

Alexander Gustafsson · Anthony Johnson
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