UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Las Vegas, USA
25 Sept 2021
Heavyweight
VS
49%
Blaydes
51%
Rozenstruik
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Curtis
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
19 – 6
6'4"80" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 54
Jairzinho
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
"Bigi Boy"
15 – 6
Knockout Artist38 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rozenstruik

This is a genuine toss-up — Blaydes at 49% vs Rozenstruik at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Rozenstruik has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Blaydes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Blaydes's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rozenstruik has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Blaydes
Rozenstruik
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
80"+
Reach
78"
35+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Blaydes
Rozenstruik
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.9
57.0
53.4
Performance Avg
56.7
42
Quality of Victory
54
81
Momentum Score
56
Blaydes
Rozenstruik
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.4
56%
Strike Accuracy
53%
6.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Blaydes
Rozenstruik
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Blaydes
Rozenstruik
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
38
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/25 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Blaydes
Rozenstruik
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
56
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Blaydes
Rozenstruik
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
89%
7
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Blaydes
Rozenstruik
Striking6.4 / 10.0Volume4.8 / 2.1Grappling1.0 / 0.3Wrestling0.7 / 0.2Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
Blaydes
Strike Zones
Rozenstruik
Blaydes
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Rozenstruik
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Blaydes targets the head (60% of attacks) — Rozenstruik absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Rozenstruik targets the head (100% of attacks) — Blaydes absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Blaydes
RND
Rozenstruik
0/0R00/0

Blaydes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2L5.2W4.5W4.2W4.5W5.5W1.9L4.5W5.2W5.1W5.8W3.3L5.6W5.5W7.4W2.7L7.0W3.9L4.8W7.5L2016-042018-062020-062023-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Rozenstruik · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.0W5.7W5.5W1.9L5.2W7.2L5.2W6.4L2.8L5.3W3.3L6.0W4.9W6.7L2019-022020-052021-092024-032025-02
WinLossTrend

Blaydes · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Josh HokitRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R2
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04

Rozenstruik · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Tai TuivasaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R4
Shamil GazievRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12

News & Media

Curtis Blaydes · Jairzinho Rozenstruik
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