UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Oct 2020
Featherweight
VS
55%
Jourdain
45%
Culibao
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jourdain
This is a genuine toss-up — Jourdain at 55% vs Culibao at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jourdain has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Jourdain has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jourdain's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jourdain
Culibao
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
69"
Reach
+73"
30+
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Jourdain
Culibao
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.4
42.0
48.6
Performance Avg
37.0
44
Quality of Victory
33
51
Momentum Score
75
Jourdain
Culibao
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
6
3
Body
7
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance12
0Clinch0
9Ground3
Jourdain
Culibao
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.4
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
4
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jourdain
Culibao
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Jourdain
Culibao
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
75
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Jourdain
Culibao
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jourdain
Culibao
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
JourdainCulibao
Strike Zones
Jourdain
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedCulibao
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jourdain targets the head (62% of attacks) — Culibao absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Culibao targets the body (47% of attacks) — Jourdain absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jourdain
RND
Culibao
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jourdain · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Culibao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Jourdain · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2Decision
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