UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2015
Middleweight
VS
47%
Silva
53%
Diaz
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Diaz
This is a genuine toss-up — Silva at 47% vs Diaz at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Silva's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Silva
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
76"
51
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Silva
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.5
28.9
71.6
Performance Avg
49.6
72
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
46
Silva
Diaz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
63%
Strike Accuracy
41%
7.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
11 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
7
0
Body
0
8
Leg
4
RangeRange
25Distance11
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Silva
Diaz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Silva
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/45 fights
Chin rating based on
15/36 fights
Silva
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R4
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Silva
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
86%
11
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Silva
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
SilvaDiaz
Strike Zones
Silva
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (69% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (64% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Silva
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Silva · Last 5
L · KO · R4
Uriah HallRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Jared CannonierRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Israel AdesanyaRating 6.9Decision
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Derek BrunsonRating 4.8Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
L · Dec · R3
Daniel CormierRating 5.5Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
Diaz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Robbie LawlerRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
Upcoming
Anderson SilvaUFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · 2015-01
L · Dec · R5
Georges St-PierreRating 5.5Decision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
L · Dec · R5
Carlos ConditRating 5.5Decision
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
BJ PennRating 4.5Decision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10