UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
Las Vegas, USA
6 Feb 2021
Lightweight
VS
45%
Johnson
55%
Guida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Michael
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25 – 20
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 45% vs Guida at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Johnson
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
73"+
Reach
70"
39+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
44.2
42.5
Performance Avg
40.7
38
Quality of Victory
35
35
Momentum Score
78
Johnson
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
39%
Strike Accuracy
36%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
6
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance5
0Clinch0
3Ground2
Johnson
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
8
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Johnson
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
78
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Johnson
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
39%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
5
10
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Guida
Striking4.8 / 2.1Volume6.0 / 5.9Grappling1.5 / 3.7Wrestling1.1 / 2.6Submission0.0 / 2.8Pressure4.1 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Johnson
Strike Zones
Guida
Johnson
Attacking
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Guida
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (86% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L5.5L6.3W4.0L3.7L3.2L5.2W4.5W4.1L5.5L3.0L6.0L5.2W5.7L4.6W3.8L5.3W6.0W4.9W4.0L2010-122013-082017-072022-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Johnson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

News & Media

Michael Johnson · Clay Guida
← Back to fights