UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
Las Vegas, USA
23 Apr 2016
Lightweight
VS
59%
Moreira
41%
Vick
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Moreira
This is a genuine toss-up — Moreira at 59% vs Vick at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Moreira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 59 points.
Vick has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Vick has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Moreira
Vick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
77"+
Reach
76"
35+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moreira
Vick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.2
17.7
73.3
Performance Avg
50.2
100
Quality of Victory
41
35
Momentum Score
71
Moreira
Vick
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.8
38%
Strike Accuracy
39%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
32
3
Body
1
8
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance34
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Moreira
Vick
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moreira
Vick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/20 fights
Chin rating based on
14/18 fights
Moreira
Vick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
71
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Moreira
Vick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
56%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moreira
Vick
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
MoreiraVick
Strike Zones
Moreira
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedVick
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moreira targets the head (42% of attacks) — Vick absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Vick targets the head (94% of attacks) — Moreira absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moreira
RND
Vick
0/0R00/0
Moreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Vick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Moreira · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Gregor GillespieRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
James VickRating 5.5Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · Sub · R3
Fernando BrunoRating 5.5Submission
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
Vick · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · KO · R1
Dan HookerRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Paul FelderRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · KO · R1
Justin GaethjeRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02