UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song
Las Vegas, USA
17 Sept 2022
Featherweight
VS
42%
Jackson
58%
Sabatini
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:09
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sabatini
This is a genuine toss-up — Jackson at 42% vs Sabatini at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Jackson throws more volume but Sabatini connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Jackson's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sabatini has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jackson
Sabatini
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
70"
37
Age
+35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Jackson
Sabatini
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.5
55.7
43.0
Performance Avg
53.2
38
Quality of Victory
34
59
Momentum Score
81
Jackson
Sabatini
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.5
43%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
1Clinch0
7Ground0
Jackson
Sabatini
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jackson
Sabatini
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
56
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/31 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Jackson
Sabatini
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
81
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Jackson
Sabatini
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jackson
Sabatini
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
JacksonSabatini
Strike Zones
Jackson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedSabatini
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jackson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sabatini absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Sabatini targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jackson
RND
Sabatini
0/0R00/0
Jackson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Sabatini · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Jackson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Dan IgeRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
Sabatini · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
William GomisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 5.6Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joanderson BritoRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Diego LopesRating 2.8KO/TKO
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